Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 22.073022 23.982577 26.040030 28.431661 31.147980 34.152174 37.746853
2025-12-21 19.551996 22.275033 25.418688 29.359040 34.227646 40.130362 47.962469
2025-12-28 17.233615 20.326192 24.084875 29.079325 35.684938 44.341908 56.943600
2026-01-04 15.623714 18.945121 23.153955 29.026544 37.265426 48.848899 67.261899
2026-01-11 14.517781 18.024696 22.631588 29.343925 39.282277 54.218125 80.135313
2026-01-18 13.462916 17.033684 21.863075 29.155968 40.459596 58.471797 92.353899
2026-01-25 12.581360 16.177656 21.165455 28.938557 41.493673 62.618375 105.591003
2026-02-01 11.880832 15.501645 20.639855 28.884532 42.731598 67.298314 121.415812
2026-02-08 11.237960 14.849220 20.077212 28.685373 43.661406 71.569617 137.973017
2026-02-15 10.660557 14.244694 19.526571 28.428742 44.426538 75.654105 155.805412
2026-02-22 10.149889 13.700606 19.018875 28.177664 45.145510 79.778379 175.687068
2026-03-01 9.721406 13.249745 18.617395 28.056516 46.076574 84.552071 199.974031
2026-03-08 9.288190 12.773346 18.152803 27.801013 46.757398 89.060130 226.794866
2026-03-15 9.138107 12.724368 18.373216 28.791159 50.125882 100.961274 289.186757
2026-03-22 8.768062 12.306595 17.953344 28.558223 50.880602 106.502587 332.549495
2026-03-29 8.464197 11.976335 17.655868 28.523571 52.065274 113.603298 391.413642
2026-04-05 8.243899 11.767299 17.548224 28.840474 54.101948 123.881542 482.241206
2026-04-12 7.959141 11.437116 17.207312 28.660197 54.938041 130.832999 566.351014
2026-04-19 7.690351 11.119517 16.867804 28.449339 55.668750 137.760677 665.972823
2026-04-26 7.464047 10.861371 16.617441 28.397175 56.794351 146.543885 805.651348
2026-05-03 7.232165 10.582753 16.313052 28.203010 57.524744 154.259288 963.172105
2026-05-10 7.007176 10.305736 15.995568 27.952581 58.070697 161.577332 1149.796635
2026-05-17 6.796668 10.044450 15.692575 27.707491 58.599132 169.149303 1384.517846